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Emperor
??
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Jan 2004
time: 18:51
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It now really is clear that Obama will win the election, the only question is by how much. Most sites that track this sort of thing have Obama somewhere around 325 EV +/- 25. If he wins NC, MO, and IN (which are virtually tied at the moment) and holds onto all the states he is ahead in, he could win 375. 400+ is pretty unlikely, but if the economic situation worsens, who knows?
I'll go with 375. It's slightly optimistic, but I think polls have been underestimating the youth vote and Obama will pull out all the close races.
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King
New York, NY
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Jul 2008
time: 10:51
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quote:
This is a most glorious troll. |
How is it a troll? He speaks the truth.
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Freeciv Developer
Copenhagen, Denmark
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Jan 1970
time: 03:51
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Heh. Also check out http://www.economist.com/vote2008/ , which is a global vote for the US presidency. mcCain is winning Georgia and Macedonia. The rest of the world prefers Obama, usually by a 80-20 margin...
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King
of infinite space, though bounded in a nutshell
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Sep 2000
time: 10:51
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Is there any precedent for a candidate turning around a 5+% deficit in the last month of the election? I've read somewhere that there's not, but I can't find any online sources of historic polling data to confirm. There's still nothing to keep McCain from winning in the EC, though, even with Obama's current big lead in the popular vote; Obama's ahead in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, but none of those leads is outside the margin of error. I stand by my prediction in the other thread (289-249), but no way is it a done deal.
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Darius871
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Emperor
Smith, Wesson, and the RODINA!!!
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Mar 2002
time: 20:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Is there any precedent for a candidate turning around a 5+% deficit in the last month of the election? I've read somewhere that there's not, but I can't find any online sources of historic polling data to confirm. |
I recall that Dukakis led 47-41 before his convention and 55-38 after his convention, and Mondale led by 12 after his convention, but I can't find anything as late as early October for either. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if at least Dukakis led in early October by the 5-7% Obama does now, so who knows what could happen.
Of course, there are overwhelming dynamics in play this year that weren't present in 1984 or 1988, which make a similar comeback less likely. On the other hand, Obama has a few vulnerabilities that most Americans (by most I mean those that don't listen to talk radio or watch Faux News) haven't even heard of yet, or if they have heard of them, haven't heard particularly forceful arguments about them yet, thanks to the McCain campaign's incompetence/laziness. If they step up their game who knows what could happen.
Really though, about the only chance McCain has this late in the game is if Obama's caught on tape eating baby-meat off the genitals of a trannie hooker while chanting Satanic curses. If that happens McCain might, might squeeze into the margin of error, but I predict he'd probably still lose.
Last edited by Darius871 on 05-10-2008 at 14:22
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Deity
Republic of Texas
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Sep 1999
time: 20:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Thue
Heh. Also check out http://www.economist.com/vote2008/ , which is a global vote for the US presidency. mcCain is winning Georgia and Macedonia. The rest of the world prefers Obama, usually by a 80-20 margin... |
I hate to break the news to you, but when Americans vote, we really don't vote with the thought of who Thue wants elected.
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Prince
Melbourne
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Apr 2002
time: 12:51
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Good news--looks like everyone that's voted so far thinks Obama will win.
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King
of infinite space, though bounded in a nutshell
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Sep 2000
time: 10:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Darius871
I recall that Dukakis led 47-41 before his convention and 55-38 after his convention, and Mondale led by 12 after his convention, but I can't find anything as late as early October for either. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if at least Dukakis led in early October by the 5-7% Obama does now, so who knows what could happen. |
This blog entry from Daily Kos seems pretty well-informed -- perhaps in spite of it being from Daily Kos  ; it also corresponds with my memories of '88 (I was in grad school at the time). The meat:
quote:
With Dukakis' polls declining the Democratis headed into their convention. The bounce was significant with a July 25 NBC-WSJ poll giving Dukakis a 51-34 percent lead and a August 3 CBS-NYT poll gave Dukakis a 50-33 percent lead (the 17 point lead so often referred to.) There are a couple interesting aspects of this "bounce." One it isn't so much a bounce for Dukakis as it is a fall for Bush. Dukakis is still hovering around the 50 point mark, but a large percentage of voters are now undecided. Again this is probably a phenomena of two relatively obscure candidates.
This lead evaporated very quickly. An August 7 Gallup poll gave Dukakis only a 7 point lead (49-42). Going into the Republican convention the Bush campaign was reporting that they were trailing Dukakis by 10 points. Their internal polling was actually showing that Bush was even and at times slightly ahead but they wanted to give the impression that Bush got a huge post-convention bounce.
By September Bush was building a larger lead (50-46 in a Sep 21 WP-ABC poll) but what all the polls indicated was that there was a general lack of enthusiasm for both candidates. More importantly in state by state polls Bush held a huge electoral advantage. Bush painted the election as a choice between "peace and prosperity or the possibility of risking it all on a lefty liberal." He never looked back and easily won the election. |
So the Dukakis comparison doesn't apply -- or, if it does, it's McCain who's performing like Dukakis right now.
Last edited by Rufus T. Firefly on 05-10-2008 at 14:36
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King
of infinite space, though bounded in a nutshell
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Sep 2000
time: 10:51
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The thing about the character attacks -- and I agree that they're about to start in earnest -- is that they'll look desperate, which will help discredit them, and they'll seem to be trivializing the election in the wake of the financial crisis (which is certainly how the Dems will characterize them). For once, they could actually backfire.
But yeah, it ain't over.
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Deity
Republic of Texas
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Sep 1999
time: 20:51
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You can buy a little trinket of support.
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Deity
Dance Dance for the Revolution!
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Jan 1970
time: 21:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
I'll be surprised if Obama wins, but it might be better if he doesn't, since the Presidency looks to be a poisoned chalice this time around, and there is absolutely no evidence that the voters are willing to change their own preferences in order to fix things. If Obama wins and makes a serious attempt to fix things, he'll be gone in four years. If he does a Clinton, then he'll probably last eight, if your country does. |
If he loses, we'll have 3 more far right SCOTUS appointments, which could well last our lifetimes. Kiss Roe vs. Wade goodbye, as well as any constitutional decisions NOT skewed by extreme conservative ideology.
Everything else Obama or McCain could do will last 4-8 years, with effects reaching another 10 at most. The SCOTUS issue will last 30 or more.
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Emperor
Fort LOLderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
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Jun 2000
time: 21:51
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While it's probably that Obama will win the popular vote by millions of votes, the GOP is nothing if it is not devious and committed to winning by any means, fair or foul. In 2000, 2004, and 2006, we saw approximately 4% deviations between vote tallies and exit polls. There's a 1 in 10,000 chance that would happen once. It just so happens that the Democrats won by such a large margin in 2006 that the election fraud perpetrated by the GOP couldn't overcome it.
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Deity
Lurking occasionally
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Mar 2003
time: 18:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Agathon
I'll be surprised if Obama wins, but it might be better if he doesn't, since the Presidency looks to be a poisoned chalice this time around, and there is absolutely no evidence that the voters are willing to change their own p |
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