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DanS
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01-10-2008 03:08 | www
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Be the bid! Remove this text


The prices in the general stock market in the US are still a little too rich for my taste, so I'm not buying index funds yet. But there are some reasonable deals on specific stocks out there. Today I picked up some shares of AMAT at $15.

AMAT makes semiconductor manufacturing tools, flat-screen TV manufacturing tools, and solar panel manufacturing tools. It is the worldwide leader in all three markets. The company's biggest market is semiconductor manufacturing tools. That semiconductor manufacturing tool market is tanking right now, so investors have been selling the stock. This quarter's results could be ugly -- we'll have to see. The solar panel manufacturing tools market, while exciting, is new and speculative, especially with commodities prices declining so much lately.

The stock is trading at a P/E of 18 and 10x free cash flow. The company has almost no debt and reasonable amounts of cash on hand. The dividend yield is about 1.6%. Its price to sales ratio is about 2.

Critiques and suggestions for other stocks are welcome.

Last edited by DanS on 01-10-2008 at 03:14

LotC
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Prince
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Nov 2001
time: 18:12
01-10-2008 03:25
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Just how exciting is the solar panel manufacturing tools market? Is it as exciting as snorting a big line of meth and bungee jumping naked and blindfolded? Less so? More so?

SlowwHand

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Sep 1999
time: 20:12
01-10-2008 03:26
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Full PM-box? Change here!


You know how Texans and their oil fixations are.



GRAN TIERRA ENERGY(AMEX: GTE)

52wk Range: 1.39 - 8.78
P/E (ttm): 24.09
Day's Range: 3.32 - 3.84
Last Trade: 3.71

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. is an international oil and gas exploration and production company headquartered in Calgary, Canada, incorporated and traded in the United States and operating in South America. The Company currently holds interests in producing and prospective properties in Colombia, Argentina and Peru. The Company strategy is focused on establishing a portfolio of drilling opportunities to exploit undeveloped reserves to grow production, as well as undertaking exploration drilling to grow future reserves.

DanS
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quote:
Originally posted by LotC
Just how exciting is the solar panel manufacturing tools market? Is it as exciting as snorting a big line of meth and bungee jumping naked and blindfolded? Less so? More so?


AMAT recently received a $2 billion solar tools order. How exciting is that to you?

SlowwHand

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I don't know about him, but I'm about to wet my pants with excitement.

LotC
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01-10-2008 03:32
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Put an end to popups!


Obviously not nearly as much as it is to you.

DanS
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Is the line of meth fun?

Harry Tuttle
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Mar 2003
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01-10-2008 03:34
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Suffering from ads?


Safe bet, but how much of a gain on investment could you realize? The ratios look great, but there looks to be a motive to maintain the status quo rather than expand. Clear market leader, strong in just about everything, but I wonder if research will suffer. I would keep as a short term investment, maybe just over a year to get the better tax rate. I don't see the company going anywhere.

DanS
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I would expect to hold this stock for quite a while. Maybe forever.

The semiconductor manufacturing tools business appears to offer limited upside and some built-in downside. But solar may supplant it within the next several years. The technology is interesting there and I wouldn't mind discussing it more fully, if you're inclined.

Last edited by DanS on 01-10-2008 at 03:43

LotC
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It is when it's done off of a hooker's ass.

DanS
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Now you're talkin!

Harry Tuttle
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01-10-2008 03:42
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Put an end to popups!


I never saw you as a dividend collector Dan.

Asher
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
I would expect to hold this stock for quite a while. Maybe forever.

The semiconductor manufacturing tools business appears to offer limited upside and some built-in downside. But solar may supplant it within the next several years. The technology is interesting there and wouldn't mind discussing it more fully, if you're inclined.


Solar is overrated. It's not reliable. It'll be for niche uses only, never for reasonably high amounts of power for power grids.

DanS
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quote:
Originally posted by Harry Tuttle
I never saw you as a dividend collector Dan.


No, I don't aim to be a dividend collector quite yet. I think they have some upside. Small chance at a very large upside on the solar.

DanS
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quote:
Originally posted by Asher
Solar is overrated. It's not reliable. It'll be for niche uses only, never for reasonably high amounts of power for power grids.



I think thin film solar could do well in peak demand situations at utility-scale, at a minimum.

snoopy369
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Did you remember to warn us that investments are not guaranteed to retain value, and that we should consult with our financial specialists to weigh the risks before investing?

Ninot
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I am tempted to put money into this AMAT solely on DanS' word, but I'm not sure if this stock is right for me.

DanS
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Don't buy this stock. That will leave less for me.

Ninot
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Too late

DanS
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Well, I'm sure you'll be punished in the pocketbook for it.

Good luck!

Grandpa Troll

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quote:
Originally posted by snoopy369
Did you remember to warn us that investments are not guaranteed to retain value, and that we should consult with our financial specialists to weigh the risks before investing?





Thats why your in the Staff here, because many would not understand that only financial experts specialists get it right and the rest are only guestimating on SWAG options, which are selling cheap as we speak on the S & P, last I checked, the DOW also was having a run on SWAG

snoopy369
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Enter the AD-FREE zone


SWAG = Sealed With A Gun?

Ninot
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I thought it meant Stuff We All Get

AMAT is doing well for me so far. Thanks DanS Looks like a keeper.

Grandpa Troll

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Scientifically speaking

Pekka
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01-10-2008 22:42
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I keep hitting my head to the wall... if I had any capital now, I'd start investing it. I'd even play it safe not knowing much about this whole capitalism smachitalism. Just buy big ones, market leaders who took a hit, the ones that will be there when it all gets back to good. Buy those, buy tons of those, even if they're sort of expensive anyway.

They're offering tremendous interest rates for just saving your money, my bank offers 6.5% interest rate for the next 6 months for anything over 5k if you match it up with a same amount to some fund or other investing type of thingie through them. Jeesh.

People go crazy like uuh the world is ending, uuh let's sell some stock. No, you freaking idiot! I don't know anything about money, but I know that you buy low and sell high. Sell now and you basically did the opposite, no wonder you keep losing money because you do the opposite. NOW is the time to buy. Or even later, but you can still score if you just do it now anyways without being able to read the signs like a pro or an informed person.

I can't imagine a better situation for a person who can now invest. I'd take a loan just to invest, if the interest rates weren't so bad at the moment and unstable. Oh well. I'll be around next time.

DanS
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Down almost 5% today so far. A range of stocks are now hitting the reasonable zone. A few more percent down and I would be comfortable buying the broader market in a market index.

Time to start stocking up, folks! Stay away from stocks in the finance industry and others with a lot of debt and you'll be fine.

Asher
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Good call Dan.

The TSX in Canada is down 905 points already.

Dow is down 540...

DanS
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Tired of ads?


Speaking of Toronto, also stay away from energy and basic materials stocks.

Asher
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