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DanS
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Emperor
TANSTAAFL
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Jan 1970
time: 17:32
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Woohoo! We're back, baby!
So, apparently the credit crunch is spreading internationally. Today, the Bank of England bailed out Northern Rock, a mortgage lender with apparently good credit standards.
Looks like the Brit housing market might take a hit. To those UK homeowners, my heart goes out to you for what's coming. On the other hand, to the young-uns looking to get in the market, happy days are here again.
In other news, over the last year+, I've been accumulating an ETF of the top 25 Chinese H Shares (FXI). It continues to go nuts (my position is +75%) and is up about 2% today. This can't go on, can it? Buffett is bailing on his PetroChina position, after a 600% gain, so... Well, that probably has to do more with the oil market peaking.
I began accumulating based on the premise that the yuan would be going up slowly but surely. Added to that was excellent growth and reasonable income growth. But it's an interesting question of when to take profits.
Last edited by DanS on 14-09-2007 at 15:12
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Deity
Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
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Apr 1999
time: 22:32
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Get a job.
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Deity
Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
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Apr 1999
time: 22:32
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If your investments are doing so well, why work?
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Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
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Jan 1970
time: 23:32
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I laughed my ass off at the employment report. It seems the macro equivalent of the perpetuum mobile doesn't exist after all.
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Looks like the Brit housing market might take a hit. To those UK homeowners, my heart goes out to you for what's coming. On the other hand, to the young-uns looking to get in the market, happy days are here again. |
They're so, so not. Yet. In London, house price inflation estimates have dropped from 36% to 24%. House prices in London have gone up 400% since 1997. Wages have gone up <50% in the same time. The crash has to be huge to regain affordability. And that won't happen, as people really want to buy.
House prices have fallen in the North West, but only marginally, and the rises there were less pronounced. Soon the North will be so cheap, comparitively, that businesses will relocate. Or companies will outsource to the North. Then we might see a bit of a fall in the South. But London rental market is still strong, and isn't likely to go anywhere. Unless the credit crunch leads to banks not hiring many. That is feasible. But IIRC, official estimates are that a 20% fall in house prices over the next 5 years is still less than a 10% probability.
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Prince
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Jan 2006
time: 14:32
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Naked call writing is a certain way to get yourself wiped out.
Speculating about the economy is a lot harder than speculating about the market.
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Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
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Jan 1970
time: 23:32
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Actually it isn't, but then you're getting people who insists it's different this time.
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Deity
Oregon Coast, USA! or Bohol, Philippines!
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Apr 1999
time: 22:32
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What have they got to lose? One must assume they've already lost their shirts... and pants.
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Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
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Jan 1970
time: 23:32
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Looks like a full-on old fashioned run on the bank at Northern Rock. Why would people be so scared about their deposits, given that the Bank of England has already bailed them out?
http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...TS-UPDATE-2.XML
Interesting that most of the withdrawals were on the web site. It would seem a lot easier to do a run on the bank on the web. |
Why would you still trust the bank with your money if it needed a bail-out?
Kind of amazing. If a year ago you'd predict such images everybody would have declared your nuts (even if it isn't a major deposits bank).
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Prince
Hong Kong
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Aug 2001
time: 06:32
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Not only Buffet cashed out. So did Alcoa.
Take your profit DanS and sit out until the end of October. If the market is still good, you can jump back in. The market could also crash and if you're in a cash position, you can jump in cheap.
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Agathon
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Emperor
Wal supports the CPA
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Dec 2002
time: 07:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Drogue
They're so, so not. Yet. In London, house price inflation estimates have dropped from 36% to 24%. House prices in London have gone up 400% since 1997. Wages have gone up <50% in the same time. The crash has to be huge to regain affordability. And that won't happen, as people really want to buy.
House prices have fallen in the North West, but only marginally, and the rises there were less pronounced. Soon the North will be so cheap, comparitively, that businesses will relocate. Or companies will outsource to the North. Then we might see a bit of a fall in the South. But London rental market is still strong, and isn't likely to go anywhere. Unless the credit crunch leads to banks not hiring many. That is feasible. But IIRC, official estimates are that a 20% fall in house prices over the next 5 years is still less than a 10% probability. |
Is there an epidemic of homelessness, or can people still afford to rent places?
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Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
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Jan 1970
time: 23:32
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<- Homeowner economist, not at all concerned.